Off-Plan vs Resale Over a 36-Month Window

A one-bedroom unit worth about $150,000 the day it completes can often be reserved off-plan today for roughly $135,000. Those illustrative figures put a $15,000 gap on the table, and that gap is where most buyers stop reading. It is also where most of them miscalculate. Over a 36-month hold the discount is rarely the number that decides the outcome, and three years happens to be the length of a typical Phnom Penh construction cycle. That makes it the cleanest way to test off-plan against resale, because it measures each one across the exact period the off-plan buyer spends waiting.

The number everyone anchors on

Off-plan pricing works because the developer is selling time and certainty, not only space. In exchange for committing capital before the building exists, the buyer gets an early price and a staged schedule, commonly around 30 percent on signing, further tranches tied to construction milestones, and the balance at handover. The attraction is real, since capital goes in gradually and the entry price sits below the completed figure. The trap is treating the discount as the return. It is not the return. It is the compensation for going without rent, and without a finished asset, for three years.

Resale earns from day one

A completed, title-held unit on the secondary market can be tenanted immediately, and Phnom Penh gross yields on quality stock commonly sit in the 6 to 8 percent range. Taken as an illustrative figure, a net rental stream at that level, after management, vacancy and fees, can add up over three years to more than the off-plan discount saves at entry. The completed asset is doing paid work the whole time the off-plan unit is still a line on a construction schedule. That comparison is not the full picture, which is exactly why it is worth running properly.

Capital efficiency and the 2027 tax layer

The resale buyer earns more absolute cash but deploys far more capital to do it, committing the full price on day one. The off-plan buyer puts down a fraction and releases the rest in tranches, leaving most of the capital free for most of the window, so measured per dollar committed, off-plan can post the stronger internal rate of return even when resale wins on total cash. The exit then adds a tax layer. From 1 January 2027, capital gains on property are scheduled at 20 percent of the gain, with sellers able to document actual costs or take an 80 percent standard deduction that fixes the effective charge near 4 percent of the sale price. A lower off-plan entry means a larger paper gain under the actual-cost method, while the standard deduction ignores cost basis entirely, so the calculation chosen years later can be worth more than the discount that started the exercise. A 4 percent transfer tax applies at purchase, with an exemption on units up to $210,000 during the current incentive period.

Liquidity is the difference least often priced. The resale owner holds a completed, registered asset that can sell in weeks to a broad pool. The off-plan owner, mid-construction, holds a contract, and exiting early usually means an assignment subject to developer consent into a thinner market. For the resale buyer the window is a series of optional exits. For the off-plan buyer it is closer to a lock-up. Investors who model both paths across the full three years, income, capital deployment, tax and liquidity together, rarely second-guess the decision later. At Invest in Phnom Penh, this is the analysis we run before a client commits to either path.